DAILY ANALYSIS

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Video Analysis

TODAY'S ECONOMIC EVENTS
16.08.2019

Despite the the positive data release during Thursday's trading session, the threat of a recession still looms on the global economy. U.S. Building permits is set to be announced and the market forecast is at 1.270M versus the previous figure of 1.232M. If the actual figure exceeds the forecast, this could provide a temporary respite and build on Thursday's positive momentum, but the overall global economic conditions and sentiment remains bearish. Thursday trading session saw the U.S. indices post minor positive gains whilst the European indices remain in negative territory. Gold is still advancing higher as investor pile in and WTI crude is trading below $55.00 per barrel.

Daily Events

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Previous Analysis Videos

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15.08.2019

In today's market commentary, we review the implications of an inverted yield curve and the prospects of a recession and how yesterday's panic selling could have a spill over effect in today's trading session. The Australia employment change for July is revised higher to 14K versus the previous figure of 0.5K but with its proximity to China and yesterday's China Industrial Production figures being worse than expected at 4.8% versus a forecast of 6.0%, any positive employment change data could be muted as global growth concerns remain. U.K. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) is revised lower to -0.2% versus a previous figure of 1.0%. U.S. Core retail sales and retail sales Month on Month for July is forecast at 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Lastly, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) is revised lower to 10.0 from a previous figure of 21.8%.

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14.08.2019

In today's market commentary, we discuss how the delay on the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration could signal a better Industrial Production outlook for the Chinese economy, what the effects could be from the standpoint of U.S. retail outlets and consumers as well as it's impact on the markets. Despite poor ZEW economic sentiment data, the German DAX rallied 1.38% higher yesterday and with the German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) revised lower at -0.1% versus the previous figure of 0.4%, the outlook for the German economy continues to remain under pressure. The U.K. CPI (YoY) (Jul) is forecast at 1.9% versus the previous figure of 2.0% and the uncertainties surrounding Brexit is still weighing on the U.K. economy. [ read more ▼ ]

Lastly, we discuss crude oil inventories particularly as we saw prices rally 3.64% in yesterday's trading due to revisions made to API data and whether there is still a potential for a further rally once the data is released.

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13.08.2019

In Today's market commentary, we discuss what the ramifications could be if worse than expected data is released for both the U.K. and Germany, not solely for their economies but the Euro zone as a whole. With the continual weakness in German data, Brexit uncertainties, political unrest in Italy, the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China and global growth concerns, there is a growing concern of a recession and a flight to safety by investors. Therefore safe haven assets such as Gold continues to perform well. Lastly, we review the U.S. core CPI figure which is revised slightly lower to 0.2% from a previous figure of 0.3% highlighting once again the trade dispute concerns as well as global growth fears.

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09.08.2019

On today's daily brief we look at the reason behind S&P500 biggest gain in 2months, UK politics still in jitters on the event of No deal Brexit. Comments from Prime Minister Johnson & Foreign secretary Mr Raab indicates EU needs to compromise on the Ireland Border issue, while EU adamant on not negotiating. We also saw a rise in oil prices from the lows of Wednesday as market hopes from more production cuts from OPEC.

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08.08.2019

On today's brief we look at the news from China which made the stock market calm for the time being as it printed better than expected export data. Central Bank of India, New Zealand have cut their key rates as the worry for slowdown in global economic growth increases. We also saw a relief in oil prices after a 5% drop yesterday. Finally we discuss some potential Trade opportunities in GOLD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, S&P500 & Crude oil. Thank you & have a great tradingday ahead.

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07.08.2019

On today's brief we look at how the Asian Market has been so far, moving on to the US yields which has been lowest since 2016. Stronger dollar is still a major concern for President Donald Trump & IMF as China keeps on weakening its currency to have an edge over US for concerns of raising tariffs. It is more evident that UK is leaving the EU bloc with a No Deal Brexit, so the hard border with Ireland looms very much when UK leaves EU on 31 October. Finally we look at the potential trades on S&P500, EURUSD, GOLD. WTI Crude & USDJPY. Please let us know if you would like us to add other events or financial instrument to include in our daily brief.

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06.08.2019

On today briefing we look at the latest updates from China regarding Yuan, how UK PM Boris Johnson is preparing for Brexit on 31Oct, the biggest fall in Global Stocks of 2019 from Asia to America. Lastly I discuss on the potential trades on EURUSD, Gold, USDJPY & Crude Oil. Thank you for joining us at ALB. All the best for the trading day ahead.

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05.08.2019

On today's briefing we discuss about the major news that came out over the weekend & also upcoming economic news. We also look at Oil prices & UK PM's new cash injection to the UK healthcare & infrastructure which led to speculation for a snap election either before or after UK leaves the EU. Finally, I discuss about potential trades that I am looking at. Thank you very much & all the best for the trading week ahead.

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31.07.2019

In today's market commentary, the highly anticipated data is the FOMC statement and crude oil inventories. We have seen crude oil sell off with better than expected results in the prior two weeks and with today's data, will history repeat itself. The FOMC statement is key as the market has been anticipating a rate cut for some time and should the forecast of 2.25 or greater be announced, it is very likely that we will see a lot more volatility on the U.S. currency pairs and instruments denominated in U.S. Dollars. As a result, Gold also remains a market of interest to follow.

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30.07.2019

In today's market commentary, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) is scheduled at 16:00pm CET where the market consensus is 125.0 versus a previous figure of 121.5. U.S. Pending homes (MoM) (Jun) is revised lower from the previous figure of 1.1% to 0.5%. Both reports showing a rather mixed economic data for the U.S. We will get better clarity of the economic health and consumer optimism later this week when the FOMC statement scheduled on Wednesday at 20:30pm and NonFarm Payroll scheduled on Friday at 14:30pm are released.

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26.07.2019

In today's market commentary, the expectation is that the Russian Central Bank will cut interest rate by 25 basis points as inflation continues to slow amid weaker than expected economic growth. The U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Q2) is revised lowered with a forecast of 1.8% versus the previous figure of 3.1% , it's slowest economic growth in two years.

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25.07.2019

In today's market commentary, we begin our analysis reviewing yesterday's data as it relates to the German Manufacturing PMI, crude oil inventories and Caterpillar earnings. With German Manufacturing PMI being worse than expected at 43.1 versus the market expectation of 45.1, Caterpillar announcing worse than expected earnings at $2.83 versus market expectation of $3.12 and crude inventories announced better than expected results at -10,835M versus market expectation of -4,011M, we saw significant sell offs in these markets where CAT closed -4.48% lower, WTI crude closed -2.36% lower and the German DAX slightly up by 0.21%. [ read more ▼ ]

With today's data, if the German IFO Business Climate Index is worse than expected, yesterday's data strengthens the bias that the German economy particularly its manufacturing sector is under pressure and further weakness is expected. With the ECB Monetary Policy statement scheduled later this afternoon, any dovish remarks will add further weakness to the German Dax, the Eurozone and the Euro currency. U.S. Core durable goods is revised lower at 0.2% versus 0.4 %, another indication that the acquisition of large machinery and transportation goods is faltering amidst global uncertainties and weak demand.

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24.07.2019

In today's market commentary, crude oil inventories remains the key focus particularly after last week's data announcement where crude oil stock piles fell greater than expected by 3.116M versus the market expectation of 2.694M combined with the announcement that the U.S. and Iran are resuming talks led to a a decline of 2.95% on Tuesday 16th July and a further 1.69% decline on Wednesday 17th July. Today's data is key in determining whether a new short term bullish trend is on the horizon. The German Manufacturing PMI has been revised slightly higher with a forecast of 45.2 versus previous figure of 45.0. [ read more ▼ ]

However, the German economy is still under pressure from deteriorating business conditions and a decline in the auto industry. U.S. New Homes sales is forecast at 660K versus a previous figure of 626K which was below the market expectation for May of 680K. This could potentially be signally uncertainty amongst new home buyers and if today's data exceed the previous figure of 626K but below market expectation of 660K, then potentially could be rather ominous for the U.S, economy. Lastly, the U.K. Prime minister Theresa May is set to speak.

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23.07.2019

In today's market commentary, we review last week's economic data as it relates to the U.S. which was fairly positive and if that trend were to continue this week, it is likely that existing homes sales figure could potentially be higher than the forecast at 5.35M. This in part is due to a strengthening of the U.S. Dollar evidenced by the upward tend of the Dollar Index. Strength in the Dollar index could potentially see further weakness in the U.S. Indices, Gold and Crude oil. These are the markets to be focusing on this week particularly Crude oil as Crude oil inventories is set to be announced on Wednesday.

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19.07.2019

In today's market commentary, we discuss the Canadian Core retail sales where there is a forecast figure of 0.3% versus a previous figure of 0.1%. Over the course the month, Canadian data has remained fairly modest with the employment change (Jun) and Ivey PMI (Jun) being the only worse than expected high impact data coming in below market expectation at -2,200 and 52.4 respectively. The Canadian currency futures Year to Date is up 4.01%, hence, strengthening the positive sentiment. [ read more ▼ ]

We also discuss crude oil's recent sell off which will affect the Canadian economy as it is commodities driven. Crude oil is currently trading at a level where potential buy opportunities may exist. Lastly, we discuss the metals sector where Silver has been acting as a leading indicator of bullish momentum for the other metals.

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18.07.2019

In today's market commentary, we discuss the the worse than expected figure for the Australian Employment change and its effect on the ASX200 index and AUDUSD currency pair during the Asian and early European trading session. We also reviewed U.K. Retail Sales (Mom) (Jun) which was revised slightly higher from -0.5% to -0.3% indicating a bit more optimism despite the current market uncertainties. Lastly, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) provides an insight into the general business conditions in Philadelphia.

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17.07.2019

In today's market commentary, CPI and inflation data for the U.K., Euro area and Canada as well as the U.S. Building Permits is overshadowed by the sell off in crude oil yesterday as a result of the U.S. and Iran reestablishing lines of communication and looking to negotiate. The uncertainty and tension between the U.S. and Iran due to crude oil, Iran's nuclear program and other factors was a contributing factor the increased demand and rally in the price of crude oil recently. However, this positive political move led to a 3.00% decline ahead of crude oil inventories. [ read more ▼ ]

The CPI figures for the U.K. and the Euro area remain unchanged at 2.0% and 1.2%. Canadian Core CPI is forecast between -0.1% to -0.2% versus a previous figure of 0.4%. Should the actual data released be better than expected , this will be positive for their respective economies and currencies. U.S. Building permits is revised slightly higher from 1.299M to 1.300M.

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