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DAILY BRIEF ON TODAY'S ECONOMIC EVENTS, ECONOMIC CALENDAR & CHART OF THE DAY ANALYSIS
We cover major market news with our Daily Brief videos; share our analysis of the events with an impact potential on the market prices with our Economic Calendar videos and discuss strategies of some forex pairs with our Chart of the Day videos.
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | U.S. Core Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence in Focus: U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) is revised slightly higher from the previous month from -0.1% to 0.2% while U.S. Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (Jan) is forecast at 128.0 from a previous figure of 126.5.
DAILY BRIEF | Corona Virus Triggers Global Market Concerns: Equity markets took a battering on Tuesday as the death toll from a virus in China climbed, leaving investors fretting over the widening economic fallout from the outbreak. U.S. Treasury 10-year note yields came off lows after diving as deep as 1.598% on Monday, the lowest since Oct. 10. Furthermore, there are growing concerns this outbreak could dent the demand for oil. Barclays said oil prices could be $2 below its forecasts of Brent at $62 a barrel over 2020 and $57 a barrel for WTI and expects OPEC and it’s allies to take further steps to support the market when it meets in March if the fall in demand for oil is more serious than expected. Lastly, German BDI industry says hard Brexit risk remains since the transition period agreed only lasts until the end of the year and negotiators on both sides would need significantly more time to reach a comprehensive trade agreement.
CHART OF THE DAY | AUD/USD: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on AUD/USD. I have put down major price points where we can enter a trade. AUDUSD broke its major support on today & testing the lows of Sep’19.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Today’s Economic Events: FOMC Member William Speech, US New Home Sales.
DAILY BRIEF | Stocks, Oil & Yuan Tumble on Virus Fears: Deepening fears about the economic and human impact of the deadly coronavirus sent stocks, crude oil and China’s yuan tumbling Monday, and spurred haven assets.Five Katyusha rockets were fired at the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad Sunday night, one directly hitting the U.S. Embassy building, Iraq’s security forces reported. U.S. helicopters were seen evacuating injured people, al-Sumaria News reported, citing an anonymous security official.With five trading days until Britain exits the European Union, investors are showing faith in U.K. assets. The month since the Conservatives’ election victory has seen $1.9 billion pour into U.K. equity mutual funds, according to EPFR Global data, while government bonds are the best performers in the region.
CHART OF THE DAY | EUR/USD: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on EURUSD. It has been trending bearish in recent days. So I have put down major price points where we can enter a trade. EURuSD broke its major support on Thursday after ECB press conference. It is still looking weak & price seem to go downwards to test the lows of December 2019.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | PMI Data and Retail Sales in Focus: German Manufacturing (PMI) (Jan) was revised to 43.7, pointing to the 12th consecutive month of contraction in the sector. German Services (PMI) (Jan) is revised lower from 52.9 to 52.5. German Composite (PMI) (Jan) is revised slightly lower from 50.2 to 50. German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan) is revised lower from 96.3 to 95.5. U.K. Composite PMI was revised higher from 48.5 to 48.6. U.K. Manufacturing PMI is revised higher from 47.5 to 47.6. U.K. Services PMI is revised from 50.0 to 49.4. ECB President Lagarde is due to participate in the ‘Global Economic Outlook’ session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Canadian Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) is revised higher from -0.5% to 0.4%. Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) is revised higher from -1.2% to -0.1%. Lastly, Canadian Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) is revised higher from -0.6% to 2.1%.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ECB Data and Crude Oil Inventories in Focus: Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) is revised higher from 95.1 to 96. Australian Employment Change (Dec) is revised lower from 39.9K to 15.0K. The ECB keeps its interest rate decision unchanged at 0%, the deposit facility rate unchanged at -0.50% and the Marginal Lending Facility was quoted at 0.25% on Friday January 17. Stocks of crude oil in the United States dropped by 2.549 million barrels in the week ended January 17th 2019, after a 1.164 million decrease in the previous week and compared with market expectations of a 0.474 million fall. New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) (QoQ) (Q4) is revised lower from 0.7% to 0.4%.
DAILY BRIEF | Stocks & Oil Prices slide on China’s Virus Threat: Stocks, crude oil prices and the yuan dropped on Thursday on concerns about the impact of the new China virus on corporate sales and economic growth. The yen edged up with Treasuries.It’s European Central Bank day, and the governing council’s policy decision is set to be dominated by the first appraisal of its inflation goal since 2003. ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to announce a strategic review that could last the rest of the year just as the euro-zone’s economy has brightened.And then it was done. After four years of paralyzed British politics, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal cleared its final hurdles in Parliament.
CHART OF THE DAY | BRENT OIL: API Weekly Crude stock had a build & China’s Virus fears adding to the bearish move down. But before short traders get excited we still have the inventories later in the afternoon from U.S. & don’t even forget that U.S. & Iran both have heavy presence in Iraq. A mere confrontation will see the oil prices shoot up in no time. Since the Davos diaries is continuing, we might having a breather from Trump Tweets against Iran at least till tomorrow.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Inflation, Economic and Interest Rate Decision in Focus: U.K. Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) is revised higher from -0.6% to 0.5%. Canadian Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (Dec) is revised lower from 2.2% to 2.0% while Canadian Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) previous figure is at -0.2%. U.S. Existing Home Sales (Dec) is revised higher from 5.35M to 5.43M and lastly, the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%.
DAILY BRIEF | Stock Index Reverses after Sell-off: Asia stocks rallied, recouping some of Tuesday’s sell-off triggered by evidence of the contagiousness of China’s coronavirus and concern with the potential economic implications. Haven assets retreated, while U.S. and European equity futures climbed.Shanghai shares erased losses after Beijing said it will start a nationwide screening effort to tackle the outbreak.Italy’s Luigi Di Maio is reportedly about to resign from his role as leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement ahead of the group’s likely defeat in regional elections Sunday.shares rose as much as 4.3% in late trading after Netflix reported results that were generally upbeat as international clients helped offset a slowdown in the U.S., and pledged a 20% boost to spending this year.
CHART OF THE DAY | EUR/USD: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on EURUSD. EURUSD broke major support overnight. I am looking for a short, stop over 1.1120 and targeting the lows from December 2019.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Economic Outlook and Sentiment for U.K. and Germany: The Bank of Japan held its key short-term interest rate at -0.1 percent during its December meeting, and kept the target for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at around 0 percent. UK workers’ total earnings, including bonuses, advanced by an annual 3.2% to GBP 542 per week in the three months to October 2019. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.5%, and those excluding bonuses rose 1.8%. U.K. Average Earnings Index+ Bonus (Nov) is revised slightly lower from 3.2% to 3.1%. U.K. Claimant Count Change (Dec) increased by 28.8 thousand in November of 2019, following a downwardly revised 26.4 thousand gain in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 24.5 thousand rise. Lastly, German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) is revisded higher to 15.0 from 10.7 on the back of improvements in German exports and private consumption.
DAILY BRIEF | Stocks Index on Risk off Sentiment amid China Virus Fears: Asian stocks, European and U.S. futures dropped Tuesday, with Hong Kong equities leading the Asia Pacific region lower.The yen and U.S. Treasuries advanced as a broad risk-off move developed, with gold edging higher.Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to a truce in their dispute over digital taxes that means neither France nor the U.S. will impose punitive tariffs this year, according to a French diplomat.European earnings are getting going today, with Switzerland’s UBS Group AG missing on full-year profit and cost targets and reducing its mid-term goals, while London- and Sydney-listed mining giant BHP Group Plc announced it’s on track to increase iron ore output this year. U.K. unemployment could be Tuesday’s key data point, amid mounting bets on an interest rate cut from the Bank of England next week.
CHART OF THE DAY | USD/JPY: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on USDJPY. As we are having a risk off sentiment from the morning, I am looking at Yen strengthening during the day. USDJPY is also in a pivotal area testing the downward trendingline which goes back to AUG ’15.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks: The People’s Bank of China decided on December 28th 2019 to start using the key loan prime rate (LPR) as a new benchmark for pricing outstanding floating-rate loans. Previous figure is at 4.15% with a forecast at 4.05%. Lastly, ECB President Lagarde will participate in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels as well as in the New Year’s reception of the State of Baden-Württemberg to the European Union.
DAILY BRIEF | Stocks Higher while Oil Jumps as Unrest Hits Libiya: Asian stocks saw modest gains as investors continued to bid up prices after seven weekly advances. A regional benchmark hit the highest level since 2018. Oil saw the most dramatic moves on a Monday that may be otherwise subdued by a U.S. holiday. Crude rose following supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Equities advanced in Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai and Sydney, while Hong Kong saw declines.Oil jumped back above $65 a barrel as supply disruptions in Iraq and Libya reignited concerns over the market’s vulnerability to geopolitical risk in key production regions.
CHART OF THE DAY | EUR/USD: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on EURUSD. It has been trending weak for last couple of days & also opened quite bearish. So I have put down major price points where we can enter on Long/Short positions.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Economic outlook across the globe: China GDP (YoY) (Q4) remains unchanged at 6.0%. China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) is revised lower from 6.20% to 5.9%. U.K. retail sales (MoM) (Dec) fell by 0.6 percent from the previous month in November 2019, missing market consensus of a 0.3 percent rise and marking the fourth consecutive month of no growth in trade, the longest such run since at least 1996. It is revised significantly higher to 0.5%. The Euro CPI (YoY) (Dec) is revised higher from 1.0% to 1.3%. U.S. Building permits is expected to decline slightly from 1.474M to 1.468M. Lastly, U.S. JOLTs Job opening having increased to 7.267M in October above market expectation 7.018M, is expected to decline to 7.233M.
DAILY BRIEF | The Unstoppable Bullish Run in U.S. Indices Continues: The S&P 500 rallied through the 3,300 mark for the first time on Thursday and the other main U.S. indexes also surged to record highs, fueled by tech stocks, solid retail sales data and upbeat quarterly earnings from Morgan Stanley.The European Union’s trade chief said the race is on to avert an escalation in transatlantic commercial tensions as a result of U.S. objections to a French digital-services tax. President Donald Trump is threatening to hit $2.4 billion of French goods with tariffs in retaliation for the digital-services tax in France. The Bank of England is likely to keep borrowing costs steady on Jan. 30, the eve of Britain’s departure from the European Union, but there is a significant chance it will opt to trim Bank Rate following a slew of weak data.
CHART OF THE DAY | AUD/USD: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on AUDUSD. I have put down major price points where we can enter on Long/Short positions. I am looking for break of .6923 on the upside.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | U.S. Retail Sales Data & ECB President Speaks: U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) excluding automobiles is revised higher from 0.1% to 0.5% while U.S. retail sales (MoM) (Dec) rose 0.2 percent from a month earlier in November 2019, easing from a revised 0.4 percent growth in October and missing market expectations of 0.5 percent. Current forecast is 0.3%. U.S. Fed manufacturing index (Jan) is revised higher from 2.4 to 3.8. Lastly, ECB president Lagarde is scheduled to speak.
DAILY BRIEF | Phase One Trade Deal signed,Markets Remain Upbeat: The U.S. and China signed what they billed as the first phase of a broader trade pact on Wednesday amid persistent questions over whether President Donald Trump’s efforts to rewrite the economic relationship with Beijing will ever go any further. The deal commits China to do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities, while outlining a $200 billion spending spree to try to close its trade imbalance with the U.S.Fueled by an end-of-the-year buying frenzy ahead of regulation changes, car registrations rose 21% to 1.26 million vehicles.Vladimir Putin’s new choice for prime minister pledged to make changes in the cabinet just a day after the Russian leader surprised the political elite with a government shakeup and a constitutional overhaul that could allow him to extend his 20-year rule.
CHART OF THE DAY | EUR/USD: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on EURUSD. It has been trending bullish recent days. So I have put down major price points where we can enter on Long/Short positions.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Crude Oil and Inflation Data for U.K. and U.S.: The consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom held steady at 1.5 percent year-on-year in November 2019, the lowest level since November 2016, but slightly above market expectations of 1.4 percent. U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) (Dec) was unchanged from the previous month in November 2019, after a 0.4 percent increase in the previous month and missing market expectations of 0.2 percent rise. Stocks of crude oil in the United States increased by 1.164 million barrels in the week ended January 3rd 2020, after a 11.463 million drop in the previous week and against market expectations of a 3.572 million decline.
DAILY BRIEF | All set for Phase One Deal but Tariffs Will Remain on Chinese Goods: Stocks slipped in Asian trade on Wednesday as investors awaited the signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal, with sentiment somewhat dented by comments from the U.S. Treasury Secretary that tariffs would remain in place for now. European shares were expected to follow suit.The U.S.-China trade war is set to enter a new, quieter phase on Wednesday as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu. Oil prices slipped on Wednesday on concerns that the pending Phase 1 trade deal between the United States and China, the world’s biggest oil users, may not boost demand as the U.S. intends to keep tariffs on Chinese goods until a second phase.
CHART OF THE DAY | GBP/USD
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | U.S. CPI Data: U.S. core consumer prices, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, increased 0.2 percent month-over-month in November 2019, the same as in the previous month and in line with market expectations. U.S. Core (CPI) (YoY) (Dec) excluding volatile items such as food and energy, increased 2.3 percent from a year earlier in November 2019, the same as in the previous month. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (Dec) rose to 2.1 percent in November 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and above market consensus of 2.0 percent. The US consumer price index increased 0.3 percent from a month earlier in November 2019, following a 0.4 percent gain in October and beating market forecasts of 0.2 percent.
DAILY BRIEF | Yuan & Stocks Rally as Demand for Safe Heavens Wane: Asian shares rose, China’s yuan jumped and safe-harbor assets slipped on Tuesday, amid signs of goodwill between China and the United States, as the world’s two biggest economies prepared to sign a truce in their bitter trade war.Russian and Turkish sponsored talks to end Libya’s civil war broke down after eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar rejected the agreement and left Moscow.Gold sagged again as the soon-to-be signed Sino-American trade deal, release of decent monthly economic figures from China, and steady easing of tensions in the Middle East all combined to undermine the case for havens just as U.S. equities romped to records.
CHART OF THE DAY | XAU/USD: On today’s chart of the day we look at major price points on Spot Gold. It has been quite volatile in recent days. So I have put down major price points where we can enter on Long/Short position.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | U.K. GDP and Manufacturing Data in Focus: U.K. GDP (MoM) (Nov) remains unchanged at 0.0% from October 2019. The UK economy expanded 0.7 percent year-on-year in October 2019, following a 0.9 percent rise in September and in line with market expectations. U.K. GDP was unchanged in the three months to October 2019 and in line with market expectations. The services sector was the only positive contributor to GDP growth, growing by 0.2 percent. Manufacturing production in the United Kingdom declined 1.2% YoY in October 2019, lower than a 1.8% drop in September and the market forecasts of a 1.4% fall. On a monthly basis, factory output edged up 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.4% fall in September and beating expectations of a flat reading.
DAILY BRIEF | US-Iran Conflict Eases as Focus Turns to Trade Deal: Asian shares shook off a quiet start to reach new 19-month highs on Monday ahead of the expected signing of a Phase 1 China-U.S. trade deal, although markets have yet to see the details of the agreement.Optimism in Britain’s financial services sector rose in the last quarter to snap a four-year decline, with business volumes also predicted to grow in coming weeks, a survey showed on Monday. The quarterly survey of 94 banks, insurers and investment management firms was conducted by business trade body CBI and consultants PwC.Oil prices held steady on Monday as fears of conflict between the United States and Iran eased, with investors shifting their focus to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal, while Brent crude LCOc1 was up 1 cents at $64.99 per barrel at 0737 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 5 cents at $59.09 a barrel from the previous session.
CHART OF THE DAY | EUR/NZD: In today’s chart of the day we are looking to take short position in EURNZD around 1.6780 area continuing with the downward trend. With a Stop loss at 1.6900 area & the target being 1.6600 handle,which is the low from end December 2019.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus: Retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9 percent month-over-month in November 2019, easily beating market estimates of 0.4 percent and after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in the previous month. This marked the steepest increase in retail trade since February, lifted by Black Friday sales. Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 266 thousand in November 2019, following an upwardly revised 156 thousand rise in the previous month and easily beating market expectations of 180 thousand. It is forecast for December at 164 thousand. U.S. Unemployment rate (Dec) is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. Lastly, Canadian Employment Change (Dec) has been revised significantly higher from -71.2K to 25.0K.
DAILY BRIEF | Global equity market hit all time high: Global equity markets hit a record high on Friday as relief over the de-escalation of U.S.-Iranian tensions prompted investors to bet on faster global growth, especially in the technology sector. Investors were also buoyed by the upcoming visit by China’s Vice Premier Liu He, head of the country’s negotiation team in Sino-U.S. trade talks, to Washington next week to sign a trade deal with the United States. As a result of the optimism in the markets, we’ve seen safe haven assets and oil prices retreat as the fear of an escalating conflicting between the U.S and Iran subside. Gold eased 0.3% to $1,547.8 per ounce from a seven-year high of $1,610.90 hit right after Iran’s missile attack on Wednesday. WTI crude fell as low as $58.66 per barrel on Thursday and last stood at $59.38, down 0.3% on the day, compared with Wednesday’s peak of $65.65 per barrel.
CHART OF THE DAY | NZD/CAD: Since 2nd October 2019, we have seen price make higher highs and higher lows in what appears to be a short term bullish reversal. Price is now in a previous area where we’ve seen consolidation between 0.8630 to 0.8730. Having tested the trendline drawn from the high of 0.89204 on the 5th June 2019, and projected forward, which it tested on 30th December and pulled backed into the consolidation area, with the higher time frame support levels, currently holding, there is the expectation, that a short term bullish bounce is probable.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | BoE and BoC speech: The Bank of England (BoE) governor Carney speech will address the BoE Monetary Policy Committe (MPC) decision to hold the bank rate at 0.75% following the U.K election and Brexit implications. The Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Poloz speech will address keeping the interest rate at 1.75% on the basis of the ongoing trade conflict.
DAILY BRIEF | Safe Heaven Assets Retreat as U.S. – Iran Conflict Ease: Equity markets rebound as the United States and Iran backed away from the brink of further conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices tumble as stock piles increase by 1.164 million against analysts forecast of a 3.572 million drop while J.P. Morgan maintain its forecast for Brent to average $64.50 a barrel this year. Safe haven assets such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc retreated on Thursday as the United States and Iran backed away from further conflict, causing equity markets to rally on the hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal. The Dollar traded at 109.19 against the Yen, the dollar rose to 0.9740 against the Swiss Franc from Wednesday’s low of 0.96655. The euro traded at $1.1116 flirting with its lowest prices in almost two weeks, hindered by weak German industrial orders data. Lastly, gold gave back most of its gains made on Wednesday. It drifted higher to $1,560.00 per ounce after hitting a seven-year high of $1,610.9.
CHART OF THE DAY | WTI Crude: As a result of the current conflict between the U.S. and Iran where apart from the missile attack than killed Iranian commander, Qassem Soleimani, and Iran’s retaliation firing, missiles on Iraqi bases hosting U.S. forces, it appears no further retaliation is expected. Also with yesterday’s crude oil inventory numbers coming out worse than expected which led to declines of 4.1% on Brent and 5.0% on WTI. This sharp decline in conjunction with WTI trading close to its psychological level of $60.00 per barrel, provides the expectation that a short term bullish bounce is probable. Furthermore, when we factor JPMorgan analyst expectation of crude oil prices trading on average around $64.50, further strengthen our bullish bias.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Crude Oil Inventories in Focus: U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) is revised higher from 67K to 160K while U.S. crude oil inventories is revised significantly higher from -11.463M to -3.572M.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Inflation and PMI Data in Focus: The Euro CPI (YoY) (Dec) was confirmed at 1% in November and is forecast for 1.3%. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. fell to 53.9 in November of 2019 from 54.7 in the previous month and it is currently forecast at 54.5. The Ivey PMI for Canada rose to 60 in November 2019 and is forecast for 53.8 for December.
DAILY BRIEF | Investors reassess risk of U.S. – Iran conflict: Equity markets rebound during Asian Session as investors reassess the risk of an all-out conflict between the United States and Iran. Causing Gold to retreat to $1,558.67 an ounce, after scaling a near seven-year peak of $1,582.59 overnight. The Swiss Franc held gains against the dollar to trade at 0.9693 following a 0.5% jump on Monday toward its highest level in more than a year whilst the Yen lost much of its safe-haven gains with the dollar bouncing to 108.48 against the Yen from a low of 107.75 which it hit on Monday. Lastly, the United States and China are expected to sign a preliminary deal on Jan. 15 to de-escalate the prolonged trade war.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Today’s Economic Events: UK Composite PMI declined to 48.5 in December 2019 from 49.3 in November, below market expectations of 49.6. It is the deepest contraction in private sector activity since July of 2016, amid further drops in both manufacturing and services due to political uncertainty and subsuded global eocnomic conditions. Whilst UK Services PMI edged down to 49 in December 2019 from 49.3 in November, below market expectations of 49.6. It is the deepest contraction in the services sector in nine months.
DAILY BRIEF | US – Iran Tensions Intensify: Tensions in the Middle East intensify after the killing of a top Iranian general by the United States causing gold to hit a seven year high and oil prices hit a 4 month high. Spot gold gained 1.6% to trade at $1,579.55 per ounce, its highest level since April 2013. Whilst Brent crude futures rose $1.90 to $70.50 a barrel and U.S. crude climbed $1.5 to $64.57. Due to increasing uncertainty, the yen remained the favoured safe haven among currencies. The dollar was last at 108.05 against the yen, after falling to a three-month trough of 107.78 earlier in the session.
CHART OF THE DAY | EUR/JPY: Inspite of the prevalent downward trend on the EURJPY, we have seen a rebound since the 3rd Sept 2019, from a low of 115.867 to a high of 122.660. Price is trading within an upward sloping channel. As it is finding support around 120.209 which is an area we have seen consolidation in the past, the expectation is to see a continuation of the short term bullish trend.
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