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DAILY BRIEF ON TODAY'S ECONOMIC EVENTS, ECONOMIC CALENDAR & CHART OF THE DAY ANALYSIS

We cover major market news with our Daily Brief videos; share our analysis of the events with an impact potential on the market prices with our Economic Calendar videos and discuss strategies of some forex pairs with our Chart of the Day videos.

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15.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Today’s Economic Events

DAILY BRIEF | Indices cheered by new Trade deal hopes: On Today’s daily brief, The benchmark S&P 500 stock index posted a slim gain to end with a record closing high on Thursday, as a dour forecast from tech stalwart Cisco Systems was offset by a strong report from big box retailer Walmart.Asian stocks jumped on Friday, lifted by White House comments that suggested the possibility of an imminent trade deal between Washington and Beijing, which revived hopes that their tariff war may be nearing an end.A subtle change in the Bank of Japan’s stock buying has sparked debate among market players on whether the central bank is changing its tactics, or even trying to reduce its purchases covertly.Easy money from the European Central Bank will not revive the euro zone’s frail economy, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who said the ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde, would follow policies similar to her predecessor’s.

WEEKLY REVIEW: Week 46, 2019

14.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Today’s Economic Events

DAILY BRIEF | Asian Stock Retreat & Powell Pushes Back on Negative Rates: On Today’s daily brief, Asian stocks fell on Thursday after soft economic data in China and Japan showed the trade war between Beijing and Washington hitting growth in some of the world’s biggest economiesMSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei stock index fell further, dropping 0.8%.European shares retreated from four-year highs on Wednesday, as ambiguity over a U.S.-China trade deal and intensifying unrest in Hong Kong kept investors at bay, while Spanish stocks underperformed as Madrid braced for more political uncertainty.U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday pushed back against a favorite talking point of President Donald Trump’s, telling Congress that the negative interest rates sought by Trump aren’t appropriate for a U.S. economy with ongoing growth, a strong labor market and steady inflation.Oil rose on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, while comments from an OPEC official about lower-than-expected U.S. shale production growth in 2020 also provided some support.

CHART OF THE DAY: EUR/CAD

13.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Today’s Economic Events

DAILY BRIEF | Asian stocks hit by Trade confusion & HK Unrest: On Today’s daily brief,Australian wage growth dimmed last quarter while consumers remained gloomy in November, clouding the outlook for household consumption and suggesting more policy stimulus is needed to brighten the country’s sluggish economy.Asian stocks and Wall Street futures fell on Wednesday, as confusing signals over the extent of progress made in U.S.-China trade talks and concern about intensifying unrest in Hong Kong hurt demand for risky assets.

CHART OF THE DAY: S&P500 E-Mini

12.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Today’s Economic Events

DAILY BRIEF | Market Awaits Trump Speech: On Today’s daily brief,Asian share markets flatlined on Tuesday as uncertainty over Sino-U.S. trade talks and political strife in Hong Kong dogged sentiment, while safe-haven bonds eked out a bounce The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes fell from record highs on Monday as uncertainty about progress in U.S.-China trade talks again rose to the fore following comments by President Donald .Nigel Farage boosted Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chances of winning a majority by dramatically announcing his Brexit Party won’t fight to oust Conservatives at next month’s U.K. general election.

CHART OF THE DAY: EUR/USD

11.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Today’s Economic Events

DAILY BRIEF | Hong Kong protest escalates hurting market sentiment: On Today’s daily brief, Asian shares sank on Monday, the safe haven yen rose and gold jumped following a fresh escalation of violence in Hong Kong while uncertainty still remained over whether the United States and China could end their damaging trade war.Oil prices fell on Monday amid renewed doubts over the prospects of a trade deal between the United States and China, while concerns over excess supplies also weighed on the market. Hung parliament seen in Spain election with nearly 80% of votes counted.

CHART OF THE DAY: XAU/USD

08.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Weak global growth cause economies to make revisions to interest rate, Balance of Trade and Employment figures: The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 0.75 percent during its October meeting in order to achieve it’s target for full employment and inflation. China exports (YoY) (Oct) dropped 3.2 percent year-on-year in September 2019 to $218 billion, after a 1 percent fall in August and compared to market estimates of 3 percent decline with the catalyst being weakening global demand and the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. China Imports (YoY) (Oct) slumped 8.5 percent from a year earlier to $178 billion in September 2019, compared to market consensus of a 5.2 percent fall and after a 5.6 percent drop in August. China’s trade surplus widened to $39.65 billion in September 2019 from $30.26 billion in the same month a year earlier, compared to market expectations of a $33.3 billion surplus. Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €16.2 billion in August 2019 from €17.6 billion in the same month last year, as exports declined 3.9 percent to €101.2 billion and imports shrank 3.1 percent to €85 billion. Lastly, Canadian employment change (Oct) has been significantly revised lower from 53.7K to 15.9K.

DAILY BRIEF | U.S. – China trade deal optimism: China’s exports and imports contracted less than expected in October i.e. -0.9% versus forecast of -3.9% and -6.4% versus forecast of -8.9%, providing some relief for the economy as Beijing tries to reach a partial trade deal with Washington. That left China with a trade surplus of $42.81 billion in October, versus September’s $39.65 billion surplus. Analysts had forecast a $40.83 billion surplus. On Thursday 07/11/19, The U.S. and China agreed to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods as part of the first phase of a trade deal without providing any specifics on the timeline set to achieve this. As a result of the progress between the U.S. and China trade deal, gold is heading for the biggest weekly loss in more than two years whilst the major U.S. indices reached all time highs.

WEEKLY REVIEW: Week 45, 2019

07.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | U.K. interest rate and economic outlook come in Focus: The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at 0.75 percent during its September policy meeting, and reaffirmed its pledge to gradual and limited rate rises under the assumption of a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth.

DAILY BRIEF | U.K. interest rate and economic outlook come in Focus: Uncertainties surrounding Brexit and the U.K. Snap election is likely to cause the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged. When we also consider that a replacement for the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who is set to step down in January cannot be nominated until after the U.K. election, this therefore strengthens the belief that policies will remain unchanged. We have received reports during the early hours of the European session that China and the U.S. have agreed to proportionally roll back tariffs on each other’s goods in phases and currently awaiting the U.S. to confirm these reports which could potentially signal that a road map is finally in place to pave the way to bring to a conclusion the ongoing trade dispute.

CHART OF THE DAY: USD/JPY

06.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Canadian Ivey PMI and Crude oil Inventories, today’s Market Drivers: The Ivey PMI for Canada declined to 48.7 in September 2019 from 60.6 in the previous month, well below market expectations of 54.3, reaching its lowest level since March 2015 and is forecast at 48.7 below the the reading of 50.0 which indicates expansion. Crude oil inventories have been revised significantly lower from 5.702M to 2.721M.

DAILY BRIEF | Oil prices unmoved by surprise crude build: Oil prices unmoved by surprise crude build however OPEC is bracing for drastic drop in oil demand due to a combination of a weakening economy, rising supply and pressure from climate activists. As a result, OPEC expects demand for oil to reach 32.8 million barrels per day by 2024, a figure that is substantially lower than the 35 million barrels per day from last year’s estimate. China and France sign deals worth $15 billion during Macron’s visit looking to strengthen their copperation in areas of aeronautics, energy and agriculture.

CHART OF THE DAY: USD/CAD

05.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Geopolitics and uncertainty influencing PMI Data & Job openings: The RBA kept rates unchanged at 0.75% in an attempt to support employment, income growth and greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target. U.K. Composite PMI and Services PMI are forecast at 49.3 and 49.7, below the key readings of 50 which indicates expansion in the sector. The Central Bank of Brazil cut its interest rate by 50 basis points amid the global economic slowdown and the adjustments to be taken will depend on the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and on inflation projections and expectations. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) is revised slightly higher from 52.6 to 53.5 but slumped from 56.4 in August. Current expectation is underpinned by concerns about tariffs, labour resources and the direction of the economy. The U.S. JOLTS Jobs Openings (Sep) is forecast at 7.028M versus the previous figure of 7.051M. Lastly, New Zealand Employment change (QoQ) (Q3) is forecast at 0.3% versus the previous figure of 0.8%.

DAILY BRIEF | King Dollar rises on Trade deal hopes: On Today’s daily brief,Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus would give a bigger boost to the economy than taking fiscal and monetary measures individually.The U.S. dollar advanced against the yen on Tuesday thanks to growing optimism the United States and China are on the verge of reaching a preliminary agreement to scale back their bruising trade war.British consumers kept a tight rein on their spending ahead of December’s election, despite being tempted by retailers offering heavy discounts last month, surveys showed on Tuesday.

CHART OF THE DAY: EUR/AUD

04.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Pessimism and Uncertainty Surround PMI Data: With the Australian Retail Sales number coming in worse than expected inspite of the recent interest cuts and government tax rebates, we shift our attention to the German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) where although the forecast of 42.0 is slightly above the previous figure of 41.7, it is still below a reading of 50 to indicate expansion. When we also combine this outlook with the U.K. Construction PMI (Oct), the outlook remains bleak across both economies. The U.K.Construction PMI(Oct) pointed to the fifth consecutive month of contraction in the construction sector and the second steepest since April 2009, as new work went down sharply amid Brexit uncertainty, competitive pressures and economic concerns.

DAILY BRIEF | Appetite for Risks Holds Strong as Indies are at all Time Highs: On Today’s daily brief, Asian shares surged on Monday, with a broad regional gauge hitting more than 14-week highs, as growing optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and upbeat U.S. job data boosted global investors’ appetite for riskier assets.China’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump have been in touch all along through various means.British Prime Minister Boris Johnson drew an angry backlash from Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage on Saturday after he rejected calls to drop his Brexit deal and embrace a clean break from the European Union.

CHART OF THE DAY: BUND 10YR

01.11.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | PMI data for China, U.K. & U.S. & U.S. Nonfarm Payroll: The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.4 in September 2019 from 50.4 in August and above market expectations of 50.2. The strongest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since February 2018 despite further reduction in overseas sales partly due to the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. However, sentiment still remains weak. The U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3 in September 2019 from the previous month’s six-and-a-half year low of 47.4, beating market consensus of 47.0. However, the latest readings remain below the neutral 50.0 mark for five successive months, its longest sequence below that mark since mid-2009 and business optimism remains subdued. The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) is revised lower from 136K to 105K whilst the U.S. Unemployment rate is revised slightly higher to 3.6% from 3.5%. Lastly,the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) is forecast at 48.4 from the previous figure of 47.8.

DAILY BRIEF | China surprises with PMI, as markets awaits NFP data: On Today’s daily brief,Asian shares scaled three-month highs on Friday as a surprise bounce in Chinese manufacturing activity eclipsed doubts raised by a Bloomberg news report over whether the United States and China can reach a long-term trade deal.The dollar traded near a three-week low versus the yen on Friday before a U.S. employment report expected to show a slowdown in job creation, highlighting concerns about the health of the world’s largest economy. Oil prices edged up on Friday after a difficult week, but were still headed for losses of about 4%, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand.

CHART OF THE DAY: EUR/CAD

31.10.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Positive outlook slightly diminish on PMI, Interest rate decisions, CPI & GDP Numbers: The Chinese Manufacturing PMI is revised slightly lower from 49.8 to 49.5 amid the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and sluggish domestic demand. The Bank of Japan have left their short term interest unchanged at -0.1% whilst keeping their target 10-year Japanese government bond yield around zero percent which, depending on the economic and price developments, could prompt further stimulus. The Euro CPI (YoY) (Oct) is revised slightly lower from 0.8% to 0.7%. The Euro GDP (QoQ) (Q3) was confirmed at 0.2% slowing from the 0.4% expansion in the previous period whilst the Euro GDP Growth rate (YoY) (Q3) advanced 1.2% below the previously upwardly revised figure of 1.3% but above the market expectation of 1.1%. Lastly, the Canadian GDP (MoM) (Aug) is revised lower from 0.2% to 0.1%.

DAILY BRIEF | King Dollar on back-foot as Fed cut rates: On Today’s daily brief, Leaders from the United States and China encountered a new obstacle in their struggle to end a damaging trade war on Wednesday, when the summit where they were supposed to meet was cancelled because of violent protest.Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, kicks off his election campaign on Thursday with a vow to take on Britain’s “rigged system.Asian shares jumped on Thursday to a three-month high and the dollar fell broadly after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and U.S. Treasury yields declined. The dollar declined against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, reversing earlier gains, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year and its signal for a potential pause in the easing cycle was taken with a pinch of salt.

CHART OF THE DAY: USD/JPY

30.10.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | CPI, Interest rate decisions and crude oil inventories – Expect volatility & Opportunity: Australian CPI (QoQ) (Q3) remain unchanged at 0.6% and latest CPI readings for the June quarter (YoY) (Q3) was 1.6%, above the market consensus of 1.5%. German unemployment chnage (Oct) is expected to rise by 5K versus the previous figure of -10k, which is bearish for the Euro and points to further weakness in the German economy. U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) is revised slightly lower from 135k in the previous period to 132K with the services sector being the strongest by adding 127K jobs, followed by the goods producing sector adding 8K jobs while resources and mining employment declined by 3K. U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Oct) is revised lower from 2.0% to 1.6%. The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75% stating it was appropriate and that the economy was operating close to potential and inflation is on target. U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 1.699M barrels in the week ended 18th October 2019. Lastly, the The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.75% – 2% as inflation remains subdued amid heightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China.

DAILY BRIEF | UK gambles on snap Election while Fed ready for rate cut: On Today’s daily brief, Britain will hold its first December election in almost a century after Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally won parliamentary approval for a gamble on a snap ballot that he hopes will break the deadlock over Brexit. A rally in global shares stalled on Wednesday, with Asian shares slipping from three-month highs, as the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve was countered by worries a Sino-U.S. first-stage trade deal could be delayed. The dollar traded narrowly as markets braced for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday The dollar was steady against the euro at $1.1110 and flat versus a basket of six major currencies at 97.698 as investors awaited the Fed’s interest rate decision.

CHART OF THE DAY: USD/CAD

29.10.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | U.S. Consumer confidence & Pending home sales data suggest optimism: U.S. Consumer confidence is expected to rise slightly higher in October from 125.1 to 127.0. Contracts to buy previously owned homes in the US jumped 2.5 percent from a year earlier in August 2019 amid lower mortgage rates, after falling 0.3 percent in July and easily beating market expectations of 1.9 percent drop. On a monthly basis, pending home sales climbed 1.6 percent, while markets had forecast a 0.9 percent increase. Overall, the data would suggest that in then short term, consumer confidence seems optimistic.

DAILY BRIEF | Indices all time high as market prepares for Fed: On Today’s daily brief,China’s factory activity is expected to have shrunk for the sixth month in October, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting hardly any let up in pressure on the domestic and export sectors from slowing global demand and a trade war with the United States.Asian shares crept to a three-month peak on Tuesday after Wall Street hit all-time highs amid hopes of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks and for another dose of policy stimulus from the Federal Reserve this week.Johnson looses his third attempt to call such an election gathered only 299 votes in parliament, short of the 424 – or two-thirds of the house.After the vote, Johnson said he would try again, by a legislative route that would only require a simple majority.

CHART OF THE DAY: EUR/AUD

28.10.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ECB President Draghi’s era is at an end: The European Central Bank kept rates on hold during Mr. Draghi’s final meeting on October 24th with the main refinancing rate remaining at 0 and the deposit rate at -0.5 percent. The bank said it expects key interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon.

DAILY BRIEF | Asian Shares climb as focus moves to Fed Rate decision: On Today’s daily brief,Asian shares rose to a three-month high on Monday, as risk assets got a fillip from hopes of a trade deal and strong U.S. corporate earnings, while major currencies marked time as focus shifted to a Federal Reserve rate decision. The European Union will on Monday “most likely” agree to delay Britain’s departure from the European Union until Jan.31, said a source close to French President Emmanuel Macron. In commodities Oil prices fell on Monday after strong gains last week, as data released in China reinforced signs that its economy is slowing, though progress in China-U.S. trade talks has supported prices.

CHART OF THE DAY: USD/PLN

25.10.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Consumer sentiment and confidence are the market drivers: The German GFK consumer climate and IFO Business climate index will provide an insight into the overall economic condition in Germany considering the weak data that have been released in recent time. The ECB’s latest decision to further relax its monetary policy due to the ongoing trade conflict and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit could alleviate some of the pressure on Europe’s largest economy. The central bank of Russia have cut their benchmark one week repo rate for the third straight month by 25 basis points to 7% on the grounds of global economic slowdown. Whilst the U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment is revised slightly higher from 93.2 to 96.0.

24.10.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Euro & ECB data come into focus: The ECB is set to commence its monthly bond purchase of €20 billion from the 1st November in an attempt to boost growth and inflation amid global trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty. German manufacturing PMI is also scheduled to be released and the latest data revealed that manufacturers remain strongly pessimistic about the outlook in September further validating the ECB’s decision for more stimulus. U.S. Core durable goods orders are revised lower from 0.5% to -0.1% and U.S. New home sales are also revised lower from 713K to 700K.Alexander, 06:17Economic calendar for Friday.

23.10.2019
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR | Euro consumer confidence and crude oil inventories: Euro consumer confidence is revised lower from -6.5% to -7.0% reflecting the continual weakness and uncertainty in the economy. Crude oil inventories have been significantly revised lower from 9.281M to 2.878M.

DAILY BRIEF | EU agrees for a Brexit Delay, Johnson seeks election: On today’s Major Market news, Russia & Turkey struck a deal at Sochi, Asian shares slip after soft close in Wall-Street. EU 27 agrees on a further Brexit delay while PM Johnson seeks for a general election to break the impasse. Finally, impeachment support against US President Donald Trump soars among independents according to Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

CHARTS OF THE DAY: USD/PLN and Dollar Index

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22.10.2019

On today's Major Market news, we look at the developments from UK parliament as House Commons starts a series of debates & vote for the next 3days . In other news we also take note how the Asian session has been so far, Oil prices & the Canadian election Mr. Justin Trudeau wins the election but with minority government. The Liberal Party is set to come into office for the second time in a row with the help of left leaning National Democratic Party.

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21.10.2019

On today's Major Market news, we look at the developments from UK parliament. It still remains quite unclear when & how Britain is going to leave the European Union. In other news we also take note how the Asian session has been so far, Oil prices & the Canadian election which will be held today to elect their next Prime Minister. Current opinion poll suggest Mr. Justin Trudeau might still win the election after the breakout of two major scandals that effected his election campaign.

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